China’s Beijing to Become ‘Super-Aged’ Society by 2035

Syllabus: GS1/ Society

In News

• Beijing is projected to become a super-aged society by 2035, reflecting China’s rapidly ageing population, declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy.

What is a Super-Aged Society?

• Under commonly used demographic classifications, a population is considered an ageing society when people aged 60 and above account for at least 10 per cent of the population.
  • The threshold rises to 20 per cent for an aged society and 30 per cent for a super-aged society.
• An aging population increases demand for healthcare, pensions, long-term care and age-friendly infrastructure.

China’s Wider Demographic Shift

• As of end-2025: Beijing had 5.288 million residents aged 60 and above, accounting for 24.3% of its population.
• Low Fertility: China’s fertility rate is about 1.0 to 1.2, far below replacement level (2.1). 
• Projection for 2035: More than 33% of Beijing’s residents are expected to be aged 60 or above which is roughly one in three people.

Reasons Behind Population Ageing

• Low birth rates & Shrinking workforce: China’s population has been declining since 2022. The one child policy (1979 to 2015) and urban living costs have locked in low births.
• Rising Longevity: Better healthcare has raised life expectancy to about 78 years, which enlarges the elderly base while the working age group shrinks.
• Demographic transition: Large older cohorts are moving into retirement age.

Implications of Ageing Society

• Shrinking Labour Force: A smaller workforce raises wages and weakens the manufacturing cost advantage. This pushes firms toward automation and relocation to cheaper economies like India and Vietnam.
• Fiscal Pressure: Pension and healthcare spending rise while the contributor base falls. 
• Lower Savings and Growth: An older population saves less and consumes differently, reducing investment and potential GDP growth.
• New Opportunities: The silver economy covers healthcare, assisted living, insurance and geriatric technology, creating new markets.
• Global Supply Chains: China’s ageing accelerates the “China plus one” strategy, which opens space for India in electronics and manufacturing.

India’s Position

• Window of Advantage: India has a median age of about 28 years, and the demographic dividend will last till roughly the 2040s.
• Ageing is Underway: The 60+ population was about 10.5% in 2022 and is projected to reach about 20% by 2050 (India Ageing Report 2023). India’s fertility rate (2.0 in NFHS 5) is already below replacement.
• Regional Divergence: Southern states are aging faster. Kerala’s elderly share is projected to cross 20% by the mid 2030s, while Bihar and Uttar Pradesh remain young. This causes uneven fiscal burdens and migration pressures.
• Existing Framework: The National Policy for Older Persons (1999), Maintenance and Welfare of Parents and Senior Citizens Act (2007), NSAP pensions, Atal Vayo Abhyuday Yojana, and Ayushman Bharat PM-JAY (extended to all above 70 in 2024).

Challenges for India

• Getting Old Before Getting Rich: India’s per capita income is far below China’s, so it will age with less fiscal capacity and weaker social security.
• Pension Gap: Nearly 90% of workers are informal, and only a small share has pension coverage. Old age poverty is therefore a real risk, especially for women.
• Healthcare Strain: Non communicable diseases, dementia and weak geriatric care capacity add costs. Out of pocket spending remains high.
• Skill and Jobs Mismatch: The dividend is wasted if youth are not employable. Low female labour force participation compounds this.

Way Forward For India

• Harvest the Dividend Now: Invest in skilling, manufacturing and women’s workforce participation under Skill India and PLI schemes.
• Universal Social Security: Expanding the Atal Pension Yojana, NPS and the Code on Social Security 2020 to gig and informal workers is a good move. 
• Geriatric Healthcare: Build specialised geriatric units in district hospitals, and promote long term care insurance and home based care.
• Silver Economy: Encourage senior living, assistive technology and elderly employment through flexible work.
• Decentralised Planning: Use Finance Commission transfers and state specific strategies to address regional ageing gaps.
• Learn from East Asia: Avoid coercive population policies. Focus on supportive childcare, housing and workplace policies instead.

Conclusion

• While China’s ageing may open space in global manufacturing and services, India must create productive jobs, improve skills, increase women’s participation and prepare for its own ageing transition.

Source: Firstpost